Economists are not prophets

As the Czech Republic slowly recovers from the COVID-10 pandemic, I try to process the fact that half of my study at NYU shanghai is behind me. Yeah, it is almost two years since I stepped my foot on Chinese land for the first time in my life. And as we should always look back, passing half of my bachelor studies offers a great chance to reflect upon my studies. Just to remind you, I chose to study political economy. Political economy can offer answers for today’s world captivated by COVID-19 chaos, you might suggest. And although you are technically right, political economy among other scientific disciplines cannot divine future.

COVID-19 is a crisis that no one could prepare for, including economists. Past crises can provide us with some inspiration while designing today’s policies, but none of them was caused by a global spread of a deadly virus. The last crisis that resembles the COVID-19 one is the plague during the middle ages. However, the economy of Europe in the middle ages is of no comparison to the one in 2020.

The absence of tangible solutions offers a chance for prophecies. The prophecies not only promise to end the chaos but also to bring us back to the world we used to know. But, as I believe, the world will not return to the norm we used to see before COVID 19. What is, however, striking to see is the glorification of economists, who quite presumably should have the answers to our problems. Why would we then pay them? (It is exactly a critique of my field of study which I have on my mind with this irony). Two important questions need to be raised: do we expect to see a world as we used to see with everything the same or do we just want to see the pleasing macroeconomic data? It is true, as Tomas Sedlacek writes. Modern economists became prophets or priests to whom we present our future hopes and desires. Tangible goods and their over- or under-provision define the norm of our lives. And as we ask priests for reassurance after a life tragedy, in the same way, and even more often we turn to economists.

Unfortunately, also economists cannot predict the future; also, any prediction made often excludes such prediction from happening. If we speak of coming back, I recommend looking to other thinkers too. Philosophers, political scientists, psychologists, ecologists have for too long been neglected but their findings are of a great benefit for the post-COVID-19 recovery. Maybe one could even find that the world before was not ‘normal’, but that the norm lied at the privilege of overlooking many serious issues around us. Maybe, and I want to be wrong, COVID 19 is only a first of many world problems and crises that are still yet to come. Climate change, changing world order are just a few of them. For now, let us, however, enjoy summer in the Czech Republic. Since we cannot travel much, I hope to discover the Czech lands and get ready for new future challenges.

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