COVID-19

SARS-CoV-2 is a newly discovered member of the coronavirus family, which includes, for example, SARS, MERS, or the common flu. The first-ever documented case of SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans was discovered on the 1st of January 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. First public notice about this outbreak was then made 30 days later, with first countermeasures being put in place in late January when the first international cases of COVID-19  have also emerged. Until this day, almost 90 % of all documented cases of this disease are from mainland China.

In humans, coronavirus infections in general result in respiratory symptoms. So is also the case with SARS-CoV-2, which highly resembles the common flu – causing cough, shortness of breath, or fever. Similarly to the flu, the vast majority of COVID-19 cases are accompanied by only very mild symptoms or are entirely asymptomatic, and even asymptomatic patients can be infectious and spread the disease. The risk of the disease developing into more severe stages is almost only in the elderly (60 and above) and immunocompromised patients where it can progress to pneumonia, multi-organ failure, and death. Mortality of COVID-19 is currently being estimated at ~1.2 %. However, the scientific community admits that this number might be much lower (~0.2 %) due to a large number of undocumented cases.

If we were to forecast how the spread of COVID-19 will evolve, two major models could be considered- either SARS-CoV-2 will be eventually eradicated like it was the case with SARS or COVID-19 will become another common human virus like the flu. At present, it is almost impossible to predict which model will eventually happen. However, it is important to note that some experts are expecting the coming spring and warm weather to significantly slow down the spread of this virus, which would undoubtedly help with its elimination.

Although it is essential to monitor and limit this disease on the national and the international level, the risk for a common individual is almost nonexistent. The chances of an epidemy, which would disrupt society in a major way, breaking out in Europe is minute thanks to well-developed healthcare. A significant risk is, however, that major disruption will be caused by the unreasonable fear of COVID-19 and panic of the public (as it is to a certain extend already the case). Overreaction like stockpiling of food and healthcare supplies (such as surgical masks and respirators, which are unnecessary for day-to-day use and ineffective as the majority of the public cannot use them properly) will result in shortages in places where they are truly needed, possibly leading to a higher overall risk to everyone.

Even though developed countries are unlikely to be disrupted by COVID-19 in a major way, there is a significant risk for second- and third-world countries (such as in Africa or Southeast Asia), where there is a high chance of the outbreak overwhelming local healthcare systems. This would make any attempts to eradicate the SARS-CoV-2 much harder. Therefore, the developed countries need to offer help with the management of the epidemic, as it will increase our chances of actually eliminating the virus and will eventually pay off, as it will help us avoid any more significant economic disruption.

In the case, that one is experiencing flu symptoms, have recently returned from high-risk areas (China, Iran, Italy), or was in contact with an infected person, it is important to isolate oneself from contact with others for 10-14 days to prevent further spread of the disease. If the symptoms are getting worse, it is advised to contact your general practitioner or call 112. In any case, one should never visit the GP or a hospital in person, as infection of others would be very likely. Regardless – the chance that any of the readers of this article will have COVID-19 in the near future is minimal. Good health and a calm mind to you all!