Brexit

On the university campus this referendum created a havoc – polls before the referendum were expecting a close victory of the IN campaign and young people and especially students were predominantly voting to remain. As there was very little indication of what was to happen, the results shocked most people and many of my friends were complaining the following morning, some about the campaigns conduct, some about more fundamental issues with democracy. For British universities this is a period of uncertainty – Erasmus exchange programs are endangered as well as significant amount of funding for research, which is coming from Brussels now.

The referendum has also shown how divided Britain is – while Scotland and London voted to remain, the rest of the country was backing leave. It is clear now that Scotland will be heading towards another referendum, as their independence claims are now reinforced by the conflicting view of EU membership. Quite surprising is the result in Wales, which as one of the poorest regions in the UK was receiving significant investment from the EU structural funds, but yet voted strongly to leave.

Another impact of the referendum will be on the domestic political situation. Majority of the establishment was campaigning to remain but the people have decided against them. The PM Cameron already announced he would resign once his successor is found, who is most like going to be Boris Johnson, former mayor of London and a key figure of the leave campaign.

Despite all the tensions these results are causing and the fluctuations in the stock and monetary markets, I personally do not expect any major changes. The EU does not have any mechanisms in place for any member state leaving and it will take years to establish those. In addition to that, I think the conditions under which Britain would leave will be very similar to those currently in place – free trade, mobility of people and labour, taking part in major European projects – all of these are likely to last even when Britain leaves. Furthermore, I am not persuaded myself Britain will actually leave the EU in the end. The negotiation will take years, and if we imagine the situation in let’s say 2021 with the final draft of Brexit, 5 year old referendum result with a very tiny margin will not be a very persuasive argument to make the final decision. Whatever the outcome is in the end, it is clear now that this referendum is a significant message to the EU and a strong impulse for the desperately needed reform of this institution.